央行增持黄金成常态

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, a decline of $252 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies [3][4]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the significant rise of the US dollar index by 3.39% in July, reversing a five-month downward trend, which led to a decrease in the value of non-dollar assets held in reserves [4]. - The depreciation of non-dollar currencies against the dollar, including a 4.5% drop in the Japanese yen and a 3.2% drop in the euro, further contributed to the reduction in reserves when measured in dollar terms [4]. - Despite the decline, the current level of foreign reserves is considered adequate, with expectations for stability in the future, providing support for the RMB exchange rate and acting as a buffer against external shocks [5]. Gold Reserves - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves increased to 7,396 million ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth [4]. - The ongoing increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the structure of international reserves, especially in light of changing global political and economic conditions [8][10]. - The price of gold has shown a significant upward trend, rising from $2,657.16 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $3,333.28 per ounce by mid-July, reflecting a cumulative increase of 25.45% [8]. - Global central banks remain significant players in gold purchases, with expectations for continued demand, as they hold a substantial portion of their reserves in gold [9][10]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory supported by macroeconomic policies, despite facing various risks and challenges in the second half of the year [7]. - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts to stabilize foreign trade and investment [6].