势银研究 | 电价占LCOH 70%，“ALK+PEM“组合制氢成本有望逼近灰氢

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of hydrogen energy as a key component of the future national energy system, highlighting the focus on developing renewable energy-based hydrogen production and the economic viability of hydrogen production methods [3]. Group 1: Hydrogen Production Cost Analysis - The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is a critical metric for evaluating the economic viability of hydrogen production, with lower LCOH indicating better market competitiveness [3]. - The 50MW green hydrogen project by TrendBank utilizes a configuration of 40MW alkaline (ALK) electrolysis and 10MW proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, resulting in an LCOH of 28 yuan/kg at an electricity price of 0.35 yuan/kWh [3][5]. - If the project does not include PEM systems, the LCOH would be 26.57 yuan/kg, indicating that the inclusion of PEM systems increases costs [3][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Sensitivity Analysis - The lifecycle cost of the hydrogen production system is primarily composed of initial investment, operating costs, and taxes, with operating costs accounting for 79% of the total lifecycle cost [7]. - Electricity costs represent approximately 70% of the operating costs, making electricity pricing a significant factor in LCOH [7]. - A sensitivity analysis shows that electricity price has the most substantial impact on LCOH, followed by the energy consumption of the hydrogen production equipment [9]. Group 3: Future Projections and Technological Improvements - If electricity prices decrease to 0.1 yuan/kWh, the hydrogen production cost could approach the cost of gray hydrogen at 15 yuan/kg [7]. - Current energy consumption for ALK and PEM systems is reported to be 5.0-5.5 kWh/Nm³H₂ and 4.8-5.3 kWh/Nm³H₂, respectively, with potential for further reductions [9]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) aims to reduce the energy consumption of electrolysis to below 4 kWh/Nm³H₂, which could lower LCOH to 25 yuan/kg [9].