A股半导体板块估值回升，机构超配静待中报业绩“验真”

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has shown strong performance driven by external news, with significant gains in automotive chips, semiconductor wafers, and memory chips, indicating a recovery in the global semiconductor market since the second half of 2024, particularly due to robust AI demand and structural differentiation in demand across various segments [3][5]. Market Performance - The semiconductor sector's valuation has expanded since June, following a three-month consolidation after a rapid increase in January and February. As of August 7, the semiconductor index has risen by 1.36% this month and 8.89% since June, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 [5]. - The semiconductor sector's valuation expansion is attributed to several factors, including a continuous market uptrend since June, the traditional peak season for the electronics industry in Q3, and upcoming events such as earnings reports from major companies and new product launches from Apple [5][6]. Industry Indicators - The global silicon wafer shipment area reached 3.327 billion square inches in Q2 2025, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase and a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating a recovery in various sectors beyond storage [6]. - The A-share electronic sector maintained the highest allocation ratio in the market at 18.67% in Q2 2025, with semiconductor stocks comprising 10.47% of the holdings in the secondary electronic sector funds [6]. Demand Characteristics - The current semiconductor recovery exhibits structural characteristics, with strong demand in AI servers and high-end smartphones, while the overall recovery in consumer electronics remains moderate. Different segments are expected to show significant performance divergence [7]. - The AI infrastructure is projected to be a high-growth area, with major cloud providers like Microsoft and Meta increasing capital expenditures, indicating sustained demand for storage chips, power chips, and SoC chips [7]. Earnings Outlook - As of now, 51 semiconductor companies have released mid-year earnings forecasts, with 66% indicating positive expectations. Companies involved in ASIC, SoC, and computing chips are particularly optimistic [8]. - Chip manufacturer Chipone Integrated Circuits reported a revenue of 3.495 billion yuan in its latest half-year report, a year-on-year increase of 21.38%, and achieved a quarterly profit for the first time since its listing [9]. Future Expectations - The semiconductor sector is entering a peak season, with non-AI consumer electronics showing stable growth, while AI demand is crucial for determining the performance growth of semiconductor companies. The upcoming Apple product launches are particularly noteworthy [10].