全球经济同步减速，特朗普强势成风险

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets have eased concerns about a global synchronized recession, but the risk of increased tariffs under Trump's administration remains a significant threat to economic stability [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley revised its global growth forecast for Q4 2023 to 2.6%, up from 2.2% previously, indicating a slight improvement in economic outlook [3]. - The growth expectations for the US and Eurozone have been adjusted from 0.6% to 1.0%, reflecting a less severe impact from tariffs than previously anticipated [4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts that the US economy will slow to a growth rate of 1% by 2025, down from 1.2% in the first half of 2023 [6]. Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The EU's GDP is expected to be adjusted down by approximately 0.5% due to tariffs, with Germany facing an even greater impact of over 0.6% [7]. - Japan's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 1.1% to 0.6%, influenced by the recent tariff agreements that reduced auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% [8]. - China's economy is projected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, a decrease from 5.0% in 2024, largely due to ongoing high tariffs and potential "roundabout exports" facing increased scrutiny [9]. Group 3: Tariff Revenue and Economic Burden - The proportion of tariff revenue to US GDP reached 0.9% in Q2 2023, significantly higher than the historical range of 0.2% to 0.4% since the 1960s [11]. - While increased tariff revenue benefits the US government financially, the burden is likely to be passed on to US businesses and consumers, as well as foreign exporters [11].