WTO：“对等关税”预计将在今年下半年及明年令美国进口承压

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Trade Growth Projections - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports in the first quarter, driven by expectations of tariff hikes [3][12]. - The WTO expects trade volume growth to decline from 2.5% to 1.8% for the next year due to the impact of higher tariffs [3][12]. - Asian economies are projected to be the main contributors to global trade growth in 2025, although their contribution will be lower than previously estimated [7]. - North America is expected to negatively impact global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier predictions due to higher-than-expected U.S. imports [7][8]. Tariff Impact - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert increasing pressure on global trade, particularly from the higher tariffs that took effect on August 7 [11][13]. - The WTO notes that the overall negative impact of tariffs has worsened compared to earlier forecasts, influenced by various factors including exemptions for certain products [13]. - The U.S. imports are expected to see a significant increase of 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily due to advance purchasing and inventory accumulation [12]. Economic Conditions - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved compared to earlier predictions, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices, which may benefit manufacturing economies [12][13]. - The European region's contribution to trade has shifted from a moderate positive to a slightly negative outlook for 2025 [7].