券商中国·2025-08-09 07:24Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in revenue and profits among major companies, despite some firms increasing their dividend payouts. The overall market is showing signs of recovery, but the underlying issues remain critical [3][5][30]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The total revenue of 30 selected A-share home furnishing companies peaked in 2021 at 167.8 billion yuan, but has since declined for three consecutive years, dropping to 135.5 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 20% [3][11]. - Net profits reached a historical high of 18.8 billion yuan in 2019 but plummeted to 3 billion yuan in 2024, with one-third of the companies reporting losses [3][15]. Employment and Operational Challenges - The total number of employees in the home furnishing sector decreased from 217,000 in 2021 to 165,000 in 2024, resulting in a loss of over 50,000 jobs [4][22]. - The average accounts payable turnover days increased from 88 days in 2018 to 154 days in 2024, indicating worsening cash flow issues for suppliers [19][21]. Stock Performance and Shareholder Returns - The median stock price decline for the 30 companies is 64%, with over half of the companies experiencing declines of more than 64% [25][28]. - Despite poor financial performance, some companies have increased their dividend payouts significantly, with 12 companies having a cash dividend ratio exceeding 70% in 2024 [30][31]. Management and Ownership Changes - Several founding families have transferred control of their companies due to financial difficulties, including major players like Meikailong and Gujia Home [5][35][36]. - The trend of high dividend payouts amidst declining profits may reflect the financial strain on controlling shareholders [34]. Market Recovery and Future Outlook - Since the low point in 2024, the total market capitalization of the "Home 30" has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 19% [5][28]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with 12 companies reporting overseas revenues exceeding 100 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 17% of their total revenue [5][38].