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降息3次?!美联储,大消息!
证券时报·2025-08-10 09:27

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicate strong support for three interest rate cuts within the year, driven by weak labor market data in the U.S. [2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Bowman advocates for starting interest rate cuts in the September meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market and to reduce the need for larger policy adjustments later [4][5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also supports the idea of two 25 basis point cuts this year, emphasizing the importance of timing rather than the occurrence of cuts [4][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will initiate three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [5] Group 2: Labor Market Data - The U.S. labor market showed a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 100,000 [6] - The employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs over those two months, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for the labor market [6] - The weak employment report increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as the Fed closely monitors employment data as a policy target [6] Group 3: Inflation Data - The June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, showing stable inflation [6] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains within expected ranges [6] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI rising by 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts are becoming evident but are largely in line with market expectations [6] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. stock market is set to receive significant economic data, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, which will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [7] - The release dates for these key economic indicators are August 12 for CPI and August 14 for PPI [8]