美联储9月降息概率大增

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts within the year, as indicated by Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, amidst disappointing employment data and economic concerns [2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting [4]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. labor department reported that July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, indicating a weaker job market [6]. - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs over those two months [6]. - The weak employment report suggests a more pessimistic job market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predict that the Federal Reserve may begin a series of 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with Goldman suggesting a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [6]. - The article highlights that the upcoming economic indicators, such as the July CPI and PPI data, will be crucial for market sentiment and future Fed actions [8].