美国降息概率：91.5%？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee on interest rate expectations and capital market trends, highlighting a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September 2023 [1][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, advocating for a cut to begin in September [1][5]. - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting increased optimism among investors [1][9]. - The recent appointment of Stephen Milan, perceived as a dovish figure, is expected to further strengthen the dovish stance within the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the July CPI data is anticipated to show a rebound in inflation, with expectations of a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise to 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [3]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest that the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially in light of weak labor market data [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Reports - The article notes that U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, have reached new historical highs, influenced by the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1]. - This week, several major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent and JD.com, are set to announce their earnings, which may impact market sentiment [4].