碳酸锂：枧下窝能停多久?

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the suspension of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mine has led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures and options, indicating a shift in market sentiment despite the actual supply impact being relatively limited [1][2]. - The actual production impact from the Jianxiawo mine's suspension is estimated to be around 4,500 to 5,000 tons per month (LCE equivalent), which is manageable given the current domestic lithium carbonate inventory of approximately 140,000 tons [1][2]. - The market sentiment has shifted, with expectations that the suspension may affect other lithium mines in Jiangxi, leading to increased stocking by downstream companies in anticipation of a potential supply tightening during the peak demand season in August and September [2][3]. Group 2 - There are two potential scenarios regarding the duration of the mine's suspension: one where the mine resumes production by the end of August, which could lead to a temporary spike in prices above 90,000 yuan before a decline, and another where the suspension lasts until spring next year, allowing prices to stabilize between 80,000 and 90,000 yuan [4][5]. - The article emphasizes that while the immediate supply situation may not change significantly, the market's emotional response and speculative behavior could lead to price fluctuations in the short term [2][4].