中信建投研报：医疗仪器行业拐点已至

Core Viewpoint - The medical device sector is expected to witness a performance turning point from the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by the continuous improvement in the technological strength and product competitiveness of domestic medical device companies, transitioning from "domestic substitution + penetration enhancement" to "international expansion + technological innovation" [2] Group 1: Policy Improvement and Industry Recovery - Historical performance shows a continuous decline in the medical device sector from 2021 to 2024, with further pressure in 2023-2024 due to upgraded medical compliance requirements and a slowdown in equipment renewal [3] - Signals of recovery are emerging, particularly in high-value consumables, where policy optimization is driving valuation recovery and there is significant room for penetration improvement [4] - In the medical equipment sector, a turning point in bidding growth is expected in Q4 2024, with leading companies' performance stabilizing and accelerating domestic substitution by Q3 2025 [5] - The in vitro diagnostics (IVD) sector is currently under policy pressure, but the chemical luminescence field may stabilize in terms of volume and price by Q4 2026, with significant potential for domestic substitution in the medium to long term [6] - For low-value consumables, attention is needed on overseas production capacity layout and progress with major customer collaborations under tariff policies [7] - The home medical device market, including respiratory machines and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), presents vast opportunities, with a focus on consumer sentiment and international expansion [8] Group 2: Corporate Strategic Transformation - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through large-scale production, process optimization, and supply chain management to maintain profit margins [9] - Technological innovation is key, with differentiated product layouts helping to mitigate procurement risks, and healthcare insurance policies providing longer release cycles for innovative devices [10] - The transformation in consumption patterns shows that the impact of healthcare cost control is minimal, while consumption upgrades drive growth in optional medical demand, indicating a higher market ceiling [11] - International breakthroughs are being made as domestic companies leverage cost and supply chain advantages to accelerate overseas expansion [12] - Mergers and acquisitions are being utilized to break through existing market ceilings and enter emerging fields such as surgical robots and brain-computer interfaces [13] Group 3: Global Leadership in Innovative Medical Devices - Several Chinese companies have achieved technological breakthroughs, leveraging population size, clinical data accumulation, and industrial chain advantages [14] - Notable achievements include the world's first full-body PET/CT by United Imaging, leading chemical luminescence detection speeds by Mindray and New Industries, and the FDA breakthrough designation for Sino Medical's intracranial stent [15] Group 4: Growth Path of Global Medical Device Leaders - The strategy of going global is shifting from domestic substitution to global competition, with local operations and factory construction driving high growth in overseas business [16] - Technological innovation is fueled by R&D investment, with some companies accelerating internationalization through a license-out model [17] - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a pathway for Chinese companies to release global growth potential, drawing lessons from U.S. medical device giants [18] Group 5: Investment Opportunity Analysis - In the Hong Kong stock market, attention should be paid to companies with strong innovation attributes and license-out potential, as well as undervalued companies with sufficient cash reserves that may turn profitable from 2025 to 2027 [19] - In the A-share market, companies expected to see performance turning points in Q2-Q3 2025 should be monitored, along with those benefiting from optimized procurement policies and new medical technologies [20] - The Chinese medical device industry is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader," with technological innovation and international expansion becoming core driving forces, positioning leading companies to become world-class benchmarks [20]