“新石油”时代来临！国内首批绿色燃料试点开启，距离产业化还有几道坎

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's green hydrogen-based energy projects, highlighting the first batch of pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology and their significance for the industry amid global economic challenges and energy transition uncertainties [3][4]. Group 1: Pilot Projects Overview - The first batch of pilot projects includes three types of green fuels: fuel ethanol, green methanol (referred to as "green alcohol"), and green ammonia, involving nine company projects [4]. - The Northeast region of China is a key area for these projects, with abundant wind and solar resources to support green hydrogen production [4]. - Many projects utilize renewable energy sources like wind and solar power for electrolysis to produce green hydrogen, which is then synthesized into green alcohol or green ammonia [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Industry Trends - The demand for green hydrogen, green alcohol, and green ammonia will directly impact the scale of wind and solar energy consumption in the future [6]. - Eight out of the nine pilot projects focus on green alcohol and green ammonia, aligning with the green transition and new regulations in the global shipping and aviation industries [7]. - Green ammonia and green alcohol are seen as important solutions for decarbonizing the shipping industry, with agreements already in place for supply [7]. Group 3: Challenges to Industrialization - Despite the launch of projects, only 5% of planned capacity has found buyers, indicating that market absorption remains a significant challenge [9]. - The price competition between shipowners and green fuel suppliers is intense, with current production costs for green alcohol being significantly higher than market competitiveness thresholds [9]. - The production cost of green hydrogen fuels is heavily influenced by the cost of renewable energy electricity, which constitutes over 50% of the total production cost [9][10]. Group 4: Innovations and Cost Reduction Strategies - Many projects are adopting innovative energy storage technologies to stabilize production and reduce costs, such as using liquid nitrogen storage to manage excess renewable energy [11]. - Research indicates that when renewable energy prices drop to 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour, the price of green ammonia could become competitive with existing gray ammonia prices [10].