37万亿！美债总额创历史新高，美联储即将降息？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair, Michelle Bowman, indicated that inflation driven by tariff policies is unlikely to persist, suggesting a potential for three interest rate cuts in 2025 due to recent weak labor market data [5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market consensus is leaning towards a near-certain 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 88.9% probability according to CME FedWatch [5]. - The combination of declining inflation pressures, weak non-farm employment data, and significant debt burdens are compelling the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5]. Group 2: U.S. National Debt - As of August 7, the total U.S. national debt reached a record high of $36.996 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 114% by the end of last year, second only to Japan among the top five economies [5]. - The weighted average interest rate on U.S. national debt is projected to be 3.28% by April 2025, leading to an estimated interest expenditure of nearly $1.2 trillion for the year, which constitutes about one-fourth of federal revenue [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - Analysts highlight a "death spiral" scenario for U.S. finances characterized by a cycle of borrowing to pay off old debts while interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget [6]. - The pressures of rising debt growth outpacing GDP growth, accelerated de-dollarization globally, and increasing burdens on the populace are testing the credibility of the $37 trillion debt figure [6].