供需关系改善下，哪些资源品有望受益？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" trend in various industries, emphasizing its role in reshaping investment value and driving industry upgrades, particularly in sectors like resources, consumption, agriculture, and semiconductors [2][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution and Industry Impact - The "anti-involution" phenomenon is seen as a critical force for industry chain upgrades and investment value reshaping, with a focus on optimizing supply and enhancing efficiency [2]. - The resource sector is identified as one of the most affected by "involution," with many companies experiencing long-term losses, but recent policies are beginning to alleviate irrational price wars [2][4]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the underlying logic of "anti-involution" and its implications for investment strategies across different sectors [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Resource Sector - The investment core in cyclical stocks lies in capturing new trends in supply and demand changes, with a focus on strategic resource security driving sustained demand [5][6]. - Key long-term trends include the expectation that strategic resource prices will remain high, and domestic scarce strategic resource companies will enter a phase of long-term volume growth [6]. - Specific investment opportunities are identified, such as focusing on gold stocks for long-term production and growth potential, and recognizing copper's critical role in both traditional and emerging sectors [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The relationship between Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and commodity prices is influenced by fiscal policy, with a favorable environment for commodities expected if both fiscal and monetary policies are accommodative [8]. - Future cyclical layouts should focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms and "anti-involution," as well as opportunities in new energy metals and the growth potential of copper and gold [8]. - The article suggests that the current market is experiencing a significant global commodity cycle driven by de-financialization, re-industrialization, and the "anti-involution" trend in China [12]. Group 4: Specific Resource Insights - The article provides insights into specific resources, such as aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and tungsten, highlighting their supply dynamics and potential for price recovery due to policy changes and market conditions [11][12]. - For example, the "anti-involution" policies may lead to the elimination of outdated aluminum production capacities and influence lithium supply dynamics significantly [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of global pricing power and the prioritization of manufacturing over infrastructure and real estate in resource selection [12].