刚刚！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The July CPI data from the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than expected, while the core CPI has risen to its highest level since February, indicating a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2][4]. Group 1: CPI Data Analysis - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [4]. - Housing costs, which increased by 0.2%, were the main driver of the CPI increase, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose as traders bet on a near-certain rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, while the dollar weakened and U.S. stock index futures surged [9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [12]. - Analysts suggest that the overall CPI figure of 0.2% indicates that the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index may approach the 2% target, allowing the Federal Reserve to ease policy in September [12]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Former White House economist Jared Bernstein noted that while tariffs are reflected in the data, they have not reached alarming levels [8]. - Some analysts believe that the inflationary pressures appear manageable, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue its path toward rate cuts [12]. - CreditSights' strategy head indicated that as long as inflation does not unexpectedly rise, the market will likely continue to bet on further rate cuts, with a significant expectation of a 50 basis point cut due to concerns over the labor market [12].