降息稳了？！美国，重大发布！美股高开，美元跳水

Core Viewpoint - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that inflation has not worsened, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The CPI for July met expectations, with the overall index showing stability [5]. - The housing index increased by 0.2%, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while food prices remained flat and energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in June, with notable increases in healthcare, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars, while lodging and communication indices declined [6]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures rose, with major indices opening higher, reflecting investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [13]. Inflation Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the July CPI data does not indicate excessive inflation, supporting the feasibility of a rate cut in September [7]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as gradual, with some economists noting that inflation pressures appear manageable, which is a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts a divergence in short-term core inflation trends, with a three-month annualized rate expected to rise to 2.7%, while the six-month rate may drop to 2.4% due to price increases in tariff-sensitive goods [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to have sufficient confidence to resume rate cuts in September as long as inflation remains under control [7][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the actual trajectory of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation may be closer to the 2% target than reported, suggesting that the risks of sustained inflation from tariffs are diminishing [13].