美国CPI同比涨幅低于市场预期，交易员加大下月降息押注

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data in the U.S. shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, contrary to market expectations of a rise to 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with expectations, and slowed down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year increase accelerated from 2.9% to 3.1%, surpassing the market forecast of 3% [2]. Group 2: Key Drivers - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, while food prices remained flat and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. - New car prices remained unchanged due to the impact of tariffs, but used car and truck prices increased by 0.5% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, traders are betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the remaining three meetings of the year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising above 90% [5]. - Analysts suggest that the report may not alter the Federal Reserve's future trajectory, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [8].