美国7月核心通胀创半年新高，关税影响渐显？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating a mixed inflation outlook and potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3][5]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations and slowing from June's 0.3% rise; year-on-year growth remained at 2.7% [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since January, and year-on-year growth reached 3.1%, up from June's 2.9% [3]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, market analysts expressed relief, suggesting that the data reduces concerns about inflation, thereby increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4][5]. - Current market expectations indicate over an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 [5]. Price Drivers - Housing and service prices led the increase, with housing costs rising 0.2% month-on-month; dining out and medical services also saw increases of 0.3% each [6][7]. - Energy prices, however, fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.2%, acting as a counterbalance to overall inflation [7]. Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, housing prices increased by 3.5%, and medical services rose by 4.3%, while used car prices decreased by 4.8%, and overall energy prices fell by 6.6% [8]. Data Collection Concerns - The article highlights concerns regarding the reliability of CPI data due to a reduction in sample collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may lead to increased volatility in monthly data [11][12]. - The reduction in data collection is attributed to budget and staffing cuts, raising questions about the stability and representativeness of inflation readings [12]. Tariff Impact - There are indications that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are beginning to affect consumer prices, with a survey showing that 32% of small businesses plan to raise prices, the highest level since March of the previous year [12]. - Economists suggest that price increases in imported goods such as tools, appliances, and furniture signal that tariffs are starting to exert upward pressure on prices [13].