阿尔法工场研究院·2025-08-13 00:05Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent agreement between NVIDIA and AMD to pay a 15% "toll" to the U.S. government in order to maintain access to the Chinese market, highlighting the importance of this market for both companies [4][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - NVIDIA and AMD's stock prices did not experience significant declines following the announcement, indicating a generally optimistic outlook from Wall Street regarding the deal [6]. - The agreement allows NVIDIA and AMD to retain 85% of their revenue from exports to China, which is crucial for their financial health [6][15]. - The Chinese market is described as a "second granary," emphasizing its critical importance for the survival of both companies [8]. Group 2: Financial Implications - NVIDIA reported a $4.5 billion inventory impairment and related expenses for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, which accounted for 20.54% of its pre-tax profit [9]. - Prior to the restrictions, NVIDIA's H20 product generated $4.6 billion in sales, and the company missed out on $2.5 billion in revenue due to the sales limitations [9]. - For AMD, the restrictions led to approximately $800 million in inventory and related costs, resulting in a significant drop in its non-GAAP gross margin from 54% to 43.28% year-over-year [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article warns that the U.S. government's intervention may lead to performance limitations on the chips exported to China, potentially driving Chinese customers towards local suppliers like Huawei [7][15]. - Both companies face the risk of losing their competitive edge in the Chinese market if they cannot meet local demands effectively [15][16]. - The rapid development of China's AI industry is expected to sustain high demand for chips, making it essential for NVIDIA and AMD to navigate the political landscape carefully [16].