飞机、船舶新型燃料，催生万亿大市场丨创业邦发布《2025可持续航空、航运燃料发展报告》

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and shipping industries are at a critical juncture for green transformation, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green methanol, and green ammonia emerging as key solutions to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change [5][6]. SAF Market - The global SAF market is projected to reach a demand of 18.35 million tons by 2030, with a market size of approximately 126 billion yuan, as over 60 airlines commit to using 10% SAF by 2030 [8]. - Current global SAF supply is limited, with an expected production of 2 million tons by 2025, which would only meet 0.7% of aviation fuel usage [8][14]. - The production cost of SAF is currently 3 to 6 times that of traditional jet fuel, posing a significant barrier to large-scale adoption [14]. Technology Pathways - The most mature SAF production technology is the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) route, which accounts for 98% of current capacity, but is limited by the availability of feedstock [10]. - Other emerging technologies include Gasification + Fischer-Tropsch (G+FT) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL), which are expected to play a larger role in the future [10][12]. Global Market Dynamics - Europe and North America are the primary markets for SAF, with over half of the global SAF production facilities located there [15]. - Asia is expected to become a key export hub due to its low-cost feedstock advantages, with 46% of global SAF capacity located in the region [15]. Domestic Landscape - China has established an annual SAF production capacity of approximately 1.1 million tons, primarily through the HEFA route, with significant projects concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Sichuan [16][17]. - By mid-2025, China is projected to have 45 SAF projects with a total capacity exceeding 9.5 million tons per year [16]. Green Methanol Market - Green methanol is defined by its production from renewable resources, with the primary production methods being biomass gasification and electrolysis [21][24]. - Current production costs for green methanol range from 3,500 to 5,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than traditional methanol [24]. Global and Domestic Projects - Globally, there are over 220 renewable methanol projects, with a total planned capacity of 37.1 million tons by 2030 [27][29]. - In China, nearly 150 green methanol projects are planned, with a total capacity exceeding 56.8 million tons, primarily located in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions [29]. Green Ammonia Market - Green ammonia is produced from green hydrogen and nitrogen, with the production process involving established technologies for nitrogen extraction and ammonia synthesis [33][36]. - The cost of green ammonia is heavily influenced by electricity prices, with a significant cost reduction potential if surplus renewable energy is utilized [36]. Domestic Development - As of mid-2025, China has over 100 planned green ammonia projects with a total capacity exceeding 2.05 million tons, primarily located in the Northwest and Northeast regions [38][40]. Investment Opportunities - The SAF, green methanol, and green ammonia sectors are at a pivotal growth stage, with technological breakthroughs and policy support being crucial for overcoming current challenges [41].