夜盘，集体上涨！反倾销初裁出炉，影响多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increases in oilseed products in China, driven by the government's anti-dumping measures against Canadian canola seeds, which are crucial for domestic supply [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On August 12, the main contract for soybean meal rose over 5%, reaching a new high since April, while canola oil surged over 6%, hitting 10,333 yuan/ton, the highest since January 2023 [2][4]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil increased to 1,087.5 USD, with the domestic import cost reaching 9,623.36 yuan, marking a four-month high [5]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - China imports over 90% of its canola seeds and 75% of its soybean meal from Canada, making the recent anti-dumping measures impactful for future supply [4]. - From September 2024 to June 2025, China is expected to import 4.7093 million tons of canola seeds from Canada, accounting for 96.72% of total imports [4]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current import duties will create a supply gap for canola oil, as the profitability of importing Canadian canola seeds is hindered by the 75.8% deposit requirement [4]. - The forecasted arrival of canola seeds is significantly lower, with July and August estimates showing a 50% decrease compared to the previous year [4]. Group 4: Soybean Market Trends - The article highlights the increasing focus on soybean imports, with a notable rise in U.S. soybean futures prices following comments from U.S. President Trump about increasing orders from China [8]. - In the first half of the year, China imported 49.37 million tons of soybeans, a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year, with imports from the U.S. rising by 33% [9].