美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the July CPI data in the U.S., indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to expectations, which increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [3][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. July CPI Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [3]. Factors Influencing CPI - The primary driver for the CPI increase was a 0.2% rise in housing costs, while food prices remained stable and energy prices fell by 1.1% [7]. - Prices for used cars and trucks increased by 0.5%, while new car prices remained unchanged [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock index futures rose, indicating market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation data may allow the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with some predicting a significant cut of 50 basis points due to concerns over the labor market [11]. - The article highlights that while tariffs have an impact, the overall inflation pressure appears manageable, which is seen as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [11].