[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 成本支撑托底 价格承压微涨 （2025年8月13日）

Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment polysilicon this week is between 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 47,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 44,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 44,500 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [1] - The overall average price of polysilicon has slightly increased due to a significant order volume from leading companies and a reduction in inventory levels [1] Production and Supply - The number of operating polysilicon enterprises remains at 9, with an estimated domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [2] - Despite the increase in production, polysilicon inventory is expected to rise by over 50,000 tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - Some polysilicon companies are planning to implement production limits to alleviate supply pressure, which may stabilize output in September [2] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing is primarily supported by production costs, with limited impact from supply-demand fundamentals [2] - The prevailing order model in the market is largely based on dual distribution or high cost-performance procurement, indicating a lack of return to a rational market purchasing state [2] - It is anticipated that current prices are nearing a temporary peak, and without significant changes in industrial policy or terminal demand, polysilicon market prices are expected to stabilize gradually [2]