3600点之后：聊聊当下权益投资的锚点、策略与心态

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting its resilience and cyclical nature, as well as the psychological and technical significance of the 3600-point level in the context of market trends and investor sentiment [2][5][12]. Market Performance - The equity mixed fund index has gained over 16% this year, marking the first time since 2021 that returns have exceeded this level, although it remains below the historical peak of 20% from February 2021 [4]. - The current position of the Shanghai Composite Index is close to significant historical highs, with only a small distance from the October peak of 3674 points and the ten-year peak of 3731 points [5]. Valuation Insights - The current overall valuation of A-shares is at a historically moderate to high level, with the PE ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and Wind All A reaching 92.9%, 72.9%, and 84.3% of their respective five-year percentiles [6]. - As of August 8, the Shanghai Composite Index's PE ratio stands at 15.69 times, significantly lower than that of major US indices, indicating a relative valuation advantage for A-shares [6][8]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased for three consecutive months, surpassing the 2 trillion yuan mark, a level not seen since the last bull market a decade ago [10]. - The current leverage level in the market is less than half of the peak seen during the 2015 bull market, suggesting that there is still room for capital inflow without overheating [11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a more nuanced approach to portfolio management, focusing on matching industry exposure with personal risk tolerance and aligning investment styles with market trends [18]. - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing offensive assets for growth with defensive assets to mitigate risks, with an emphasis on dividend strategies and bond funds as stabilizers [19]. Sector Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on structural rotation opportunities, particularly in sectors like banking and small-cap stocks, which have shown leadership in the current market rally [20]. - Upcoming mid-year earnings reports are expected to be pivotal, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace ETFs likely to perform well based on fundamental support [21]. Long-term Perspective - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and a long-term view in investing, as the market is expected to experience fluctuations rather than a straight upward trajectory [23]. - It highlights the need for investors to focus on understanding market dynamics, their own limitations, and the value of time in investment, rather than being swayed by short-term market noise [26][27].