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央行最新发布!7月金融数据出炉
第一财经·2025-08-13 09:41

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data released by the central bank for July 2025, highlighting the acceleration in M2 growth and the stable growth of social financing, indicating a positive trend in credit demand and economic activity [3][4]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of July 2025, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month [3]. - The total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, and an incremental increase of 1.13 trillion yuan, which is 361.3 billion yuan more than the previous year [3][4]. Seasonal Factors Impacting Data - The fluctuations in credit data for June and July are attributed to seasonal factors, policy adjustments, and structural optimization [3][6]. - The timing of financial institutions' half-year reports and the settlement period for enterprises significantly influenced the credit data [6]. - The replacement of local government bonds has notably impacted loan data, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [7][6]. Credit Structure Optimization - By the end of July, the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, indicating strong support for the real economy [9]. - The growth of inclusive small and micro loans was 11.8%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5%, both exceeding the overall loan growth rate [10]. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive, with a significant increase in government bond issuance, totaling 13.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds [12]. - The government department's leverage ratio increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios for non-financial enterprises and households remained relatively stable [12][14]. - The article emphasizes that the continuous and stable macroeconomic policies are expected to support effective credit demand and economic recovery [12][14].