持续上涨！近期持有体验良好，不过...市场过热了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market, particularly focusing on the increase in margin trading balance, which has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity and investor sentiment [4][7][10]. Market Performance - Since April 8, 2025, major indices have shown a significant number of rising trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising on 66.3% of the 86 trading days [4][6]. - From July 1, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen on 76% of the 30 trading days, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [4][6]. Margin Trading Balance - The margin trading balance, which includes both financing and securities lending balances, has reached over 2 trillion yuan as of August 5, 2025, marking a significant increase [7][8]. - The last time the margin trading balance reached this level was in July 2015, a period associated with a major bull market and subsequent crash [9][10]. Historical Comparison - Current margin trading balance represents only 2.3% of the A-share market's circulating market value, compared to 5.6% during the peak in 2015, suggesting a more moderate leverage environment [10]. - The number of stocks involved in margin trading has increased to over 4,000, nearly five times the number during the 2015 peak, indicating a diversification of risk [10]. Sector Preferences - Recent inflows into margin trading have favored sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, defense, and machinery, reflecting a trend towards investing in fundamentally strong companies [12][13]. - In contrast to the 2014-2015 period, where financial sectors dominated margin buying, the current environment shows a more balanced distribution across various growth sectors [13].