美国7月关税收入创新高，到底是谁在埋单？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, which reached a record high in July, and its implications for consumers and the economy [3][4]. Tariff Revenue Growth - In July, U.S. tariff revenue surged to $28 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year, bringing the total for the fiscal year to $142 billion [3]. - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, with projections suggesting it could exceed 5% under current policies [3]. - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rates" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [7]. Impact on Consumers - The average effective tariff rate for U.S. consumers has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected 1.8% increase in price levels this year, equating to a $2,400 reduction in annual income per household [8]. - Specific sectors, such as clothing and textiles, are experiencing significant price hikes, with footwear and apparel prices expected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [8]. Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to compress disposable income, reducing demand for imported goods, which could lead to a decline in tariff revenue over time [4][7]. - Despite the rise in tariff revenue, there are concerns that it may not be sufficient to address the growing national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [11][12]. Future Projections - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that tariff revenue could reach $300 billion for the fiscal year 2025, but experts caution that this growth may have a ceiling due to its negative impact on economic growth [7][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a cumulative federal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly outpacing expected tariff revenue [12].