9月降息稳了？美财长：可能从50个基点开始

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with a 75 basis point reduction expected throughout the year [4]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate the first rate cut in September [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive and advocates for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Fed's neutral rate [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales data is crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in July [5]. - Recent employment reports indicate a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, raising concerns about the labor market [4]. - The Fed's decision-making may hinge on further employment and inflation data before the September meeting [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The list of potential successors for Fed Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to leadership at the Fed [7]. - Some Fed policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year [7][8]. - Despite the shift towards easing, there are still cautious voices within the Fed, emphasizing the need to balance inflation targets with employment goals [8].