凌晨！美联储，重磅发声！

Core Viewpoint - Recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cooling of expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with officials emphasizing the need for more economic data before making decisions [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed the desire to review more economic data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly focusing on inflation and employment metrics [3][5]. - Goolsbee highlighted concerns about the impact of tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that the effects may not be as temporary as previously thought [5][7]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the labor market is close to full employment, which provides the Fed with the flexibility to avoid hasty policy adjustments [7][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Market traders have increasingly bet on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with OIS contracts fully pricing in this expectation [10]. - Some analysts suggest that a 50 basis point cut is also a possibility, depending on future economic data, particularly if unemployment rates rise [11][12]. - Major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have differing views on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September [10][12]. Group 3: Political Context - President Trump indicated he may announce the next Fed chairperson sooner than expected, narrowing the candidate list to 3-4 individuals [14]. - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current interest rates, suggesting they should be lower, and criticized the Fed's current leadership [15].