美财长：9月可能降息50个基点

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated a high likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to recent weak employment data [1][2][4] Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Recent revisions to employment data show that job growth in May, June, and July has nearly stagnated, contrasting sharply with previous reports [4] - The market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve has approached nearly 100% following the latest inflation data showing a mild increase [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Political Context - Mnuchin suggested that the Federal Reserve should lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Trump administration's criticism of the Fed's previous rate decisions [1][5] - The proposed rate cut would reduce the current rate from the 4.25% to 4.5% range to approximately 3%, which is considered a "neutral" level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [5] Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Despite calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, stating that the fight against inflation is not yet won, as price increases still exceed target levels [6] - Some policymakers are beginning to accept the idea of ignoring price fluctuations related to tariffs, focusing instead on the potential rise in unemployment [6]