详解美国7月CPI背后的关税阴影，“消费者还将看到价格进一步上涨”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that while overall inflation remains moderate, specific goods are experiencing significant price increases due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][9]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, indicating a growing inflationary pressure [3][5]. - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.3%, the largest since January [3]. Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Goods - Prices for non-food and non-energy commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July, with notable increases in footwear (1.4%) and furniture (0.9%) [6][8]. - The price of shoes is projected to rise by 40% and clothing by 38% in the short term due to tariffs, with long-term increases expected to be 19% and 17%, respectively [6][12]. Group 3: Tariff Impact on Imports - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with predictions that it could exceed 18% [11][12]. - The tariffs are anticipated to lead to a decline in global trade over the next four quarters, with significant impacts on the prices of imported goods [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that while tariffs have not yet caused significant overall inflation, they are contributing to rising prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [9][12]. - The gradual impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to manifest as a slow decline in purchasing power rather than an immediate inflation spike [12][13].