刚宣布！暂停降息

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for mild rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On August 14, the Norwegian central bank announced the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [4]. - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, stated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The central bank's previous unexpected rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, with inflation remaining above the target despite a slight decrease in core inflation from 2.8% in May to 3.1% in June and July [5]. - Current inflation pressures are significant, with forecasts indicating that inflation may not return to the target range until 2028, highlighting long-term challenges in combating inflation [5]. - The current interest rate is at a historical low, and further cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone, necessitating caution in monetary policy [5]. Group 3: External Influences - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, are influencing the Norwegian central bank's stance. There is a high probability (over 90%) of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could impact capital flows in Norway [5]. - If the Federal Reserve's actual rate cut is less than expected, it may lead to capital outflows from Norway, compounded by U.S. tariffs on the EU affecting exports, necessitating the preservation of policy tools for potential further easing [5].