深夜，全线下挫！美联储，突变！

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished due to unexpectedly high Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which has raised inflation concerns and affected market sentiment [1][5][9]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [3][5]. - Year-on-year, the July PPI rose by 3.3%, also above the expected 2.5% [3][5]. - Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, both figures surpassing market expectations [5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the PPI data release, traders reduced their bets on a September interest rate cut, with the probability of a cut now at 90% [5][6]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 1%, with notable declines in several semiconductor stocks, including Coherent, which dropped over 20% [3][4]. Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed opposition to a 50 basis point cut in September, suggesting a gradual approach to policy adjustments [9][10]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that a single rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate, contingent on a stable job market [10][11]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet noted that achieving a neutral interest rate would require a reduction of approximately 150 basis points [11][12].