经济观察报·2025-08-15 03:32Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic module market is experiencing a shortage and price increase, with current quotes reaching 0.7 yuan/W, up from approximately 0.66 yuan/W in late June, primarily for the 710W large-format modules [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the "rush installation tide" triggered by the "136 Document" from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the market is now facing shortages and price hikes again in August [2]. - The current shortage is attributed to rising upstream polysilicon prices and limited production capacity from certain manufacturers, rather than a significant increase in downstream demand [2][3]. - The installation volume of photovoltaic modules reached 92.92 GW in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 388% and a month-on-month increase of 105.5% [3]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - Major manufacturers are adjusting production based on orders and market conditions to reduce inventory and mitigate risks associated with price declines during industry cycles [3]. - As of July, module production was approximately 52.4 GW, slightly down from 53 GW in June, with expectations for stable production in August [3]. - The cost of polysilicon has risen from 36,000 yuan/ton to 48,000 yuan/ton since early July, leading to an increase in production costs for photovoltaic modules from approximately 0.626 yuan/W to 0.679 yuan/W [4]. Group 3: Customer Behavior - Current customers willing to accept price increases are primarily driven by project timelines, including state-owned enterprises and distributed project developers who are less sensitive to price changes [5]. - There is a divergence in the acceptance of price increases among terminal enterprises, with some projects already adjusting procurement prices while others are beginning to sell at lower prices due to difficulties in securing high-priced orders [5].