Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing reliance on international trade for food consumption, particularly in China, Japan, and other regions, with projections indicating that 22% of calorie consumption will depend on global trade over the next decade [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The share of trade in major agricultural product output has risen from 16% in 2000 to 23% in the 2022-2024 period [4]. - Brazil's average net export value is projected to be $70.3 billion for 2022-2024, doubling from ten years ago, while the U.S. will see a 22% increase to $45.4 billion [6]. - China's average net import value is expected to reach $98.2 billion, which is 3.2 times higher than a decade ago, indicating a significant increase in import dependency [6]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - China's imports of wheat are growing at an annual rate of 18%, corn at 30%, beef at 25%, and pork at 10%, reflecting a shift in dietary structure from grains to meat [6]. - In contrast, Japan's net import value remains stable at $26.3 billion, while Western European countries have reduced their net imports by 42% through increased domestic production [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - The gap between net exporting and importing regions is expected to widen over the next decade, with cross-border food trade projected to account for 22% of overall calorie consumption [6]. - By 2034, China's consumption of staple foods like wheat and rice is expected to increase by 2%, while India and Africa will see increases of 19% and 29%, respectively, positioning them as future drivers of global grain consumption [8]. - The article emphasizes the need for multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade system, especially in light of the disruptions caused by tariff policies [8].
全球今后10年2成食物靠进口,中国依赖水平高
日经中文网·2025-08-16 00:34