美联储，重磅来袭！鲍威尔，大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference is expected to be pivotal, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech potentially influencing market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Reactions - Investors are anticipating that Powell's speech will provide insights into the Fed's future monetary policy and its independence, with a strong expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, as indicated by over 92% probability in the federal funds futures market [6][7]. - The expectation of rate cuts has already driven U.S. stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs, with housing builders and cyclical stocks being the biggest beneficiaries [6][7]. - Any signals from Powell that contradict market expectations could lead to significant market volatility, as the housing sector's strong performance reflects confidence in forthcoming rate cuts [7][8]. Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Position - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made significant investments in the housing sector, including new positions in D.R. Horton and increased stakes in Lennar, signaling a bet on declining future interest rates benefiting the housing industry [2][9]. - The housing sector is showing signs of recovery as investors reassess the long-term impacts of high interest rates, indicating a potential shift in investment opportunities within this industry [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - A report from Bank of America highlights a surge in investments into risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and corporate bonds, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts to support a weakening labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens [10]. - In the week ending August 13, approximately $21 billion flowed into U.S. stock funds, contrasting sharply with nearly $28 billion in redemptions the previous week, indicating a strong shift in investor sentiment [10].