美国应用材料8~10月营收预减5%，中国业务低迷

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials, the largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment company in the U.S., is experiencing a sales decline for the first time in seven quarters, primarily due to stagnation in its largest market, China, and the impact of U.S. government restrictions on exports [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Applied Materials expects sales for the period of August to October 2025 to be $6.7 billion, a 5% decrease year-over-year, which is below market expectations [3]. - The company's sales to China accounted for 30% of total sales from November 2024 to July 2025, down significantly from 40% in the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is projected to reach $117.1 billion in 2024, with China accounting for $49.5 billion, representing 42% of the market [6]. - The decline in sales in China is attributed to U.S. government export controls aimed at curbing China's advanced semiconductor development [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other U.S. competitors, such as Lam Research and KLA, are also facing declining sales in China, with Lam Research's sales proportion to China dropping by 8 percentage points to 34% and KLA's by 10 percentage points [7]. - Chinese local competitors, such as NAURA and AMEC, are expanding their market share in less technologically challenging semiconductor equipment, supported by government subsidies to reduce reliance on U.S. technology [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The backlog of export license applications is acknowledged by the CEO of Applied Materials, who expressed pessimism about the likelihood of any licenses being issued for the upcoming period [6]. - The U.S. Congress has proposed further tightening of export controls to prevent China from developing advanced AI technologies, which could inadvertently accelerate the technological accumulation of Chinese companies [7].