最后一次参会！美联储主席鲍威尔会在全球央行年会上顺应9月降息预期吗？

Core Viewpoint - Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds are closely monitoring signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, particularly regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts in September [3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to assess the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy. There is a divergence among policymakers regarding when to resume rate cuts, especially given that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and signs of a slowing labor market are emerging [6][12]. Market Expectations - The bond market has returned to aggressive rate cut bets, with an approximately 85% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a 50 basis point cut in one go [7][8]. The market anticipates that Powell will align with these expectations, although he may emphasize that the decision will depend on economic data leading up to the meeting [7]. Historical Context of Powell's Speeches - Powell's speeches at Jackson Hole have historically influenced market movements. His first speech in 2018 outlined key variables facing central banks and indicated a pragmatic approach to monetary policy. Over the years, he has navigated various economic challenges, including inflation spikes and the pandemic [10][11]. Future Implications - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making process. If the report indicates weakness in the labor market, it is likely that the market will price in a 25 basis point cut, and Powell is expected not to oppose this market sentiment [8][12].