Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 4000 points by the end of the year, drawing parallels with previous bull markets and their driving factors [1][7]. Historical Context - The 2005 stock reform initiated a bull market, propelling the A-share market from 998 points in June 2005 to 6124 points in October 2007, a rise of over 6 times, before a decline to 1665 points due to the global financial crisis [2]. - In 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index surged from 2000 points to 5178 points, influenced by global liquidity easing and domestic reforms, but later fell to 2638 points following regulatory crackdowns on margin trading [4]. Sector Performance - For the range of 3000 to 3600 points, leading sectors included: - Beauty Care: 57.22% - Construction Decoration: 48.83% - Steel: 46.58% [3] - For the range of 3600 to 4000 points, leading sectors included: - Media: 65.30% - Computer: 52.93% - Non-banking Financials: 44.87% [3]. Future Predictions - Institutions generally expect the Shanghai Composite Index to stabilize around 3700 points, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a challenge to the 4000-4500 point range by the end of 2025 to mid-2026 [9]. - If macroeconomic conditions improve and policy support increases, the index could gradually approach 5000 points or higher by 2026-2027, with a focus on new productivity sectors like AI and semiconductors [9].
机构齐声高喊4000点！过去牛市关键点位冲刺期，需要多少天
天天基金网·2025-08-18 11:00