Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) on the software industry, suggesting that AGI will redefine the technological landscape over the next two decades, similar to the internet's influence in the past [2]. Group 1: Software Industry Outlook - The software industry is experiencing a shift towards a "fast fashion" model, where AI enables cheaper and faster production processes, leading to a pessimistic sentiment among market participants [2][3]. - The fate of technology is determined not solely by the technology itself but by a combination of factors including market demand, efficiency, and policy, which together define "feasible technology" [3]. - The software industry is expected to undergo a process of elevation, moving from "dead" systems to "living" software that can learn and adapt to user contexts [4][5]. Group 2: Evolution of Software - Traditional software operates as either a system of record or engagement, but the future lies in "living software" that builds competitive advantages based on learning rather than just code [5][6]. - The ability of software companies to self-learn will depend on advanced models like Recursive agents and In Context Learning Agents, which are currently being explored in both academia and industry [6]. - The democratization of front-end UI/UX is causing anxiety in the industry, as many startups are creating environments for AI models to replicate existing software functionalities [7]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - AI is leading to a more granular economic landscape, allowing for extreme pricing strategies where software companies can potentially monopolize pricing based on outcomes rather than usage [8][9]. - This new pricing model could fundamentally change the revenue structure for software companies, moving away from traditional seat-based or usage-based pricing [9]. - The infrastructure investments in data centers and model training are likened to banks absorbing savings before lending, indicating a shift towards a new economic model for intelligent systems [9]. Group 4: Market Performance - Recent market performance shows a mixed sentiment, with companies like Atlassian, Monday, and MongoDB experiencing declines, reflecting broader market pessimism [12]. - AGIX has shown resilience with a year-to-date return of 15.62% and a return of 55.02% since 2024, indicating potential strength in the AGI-related investment space [11].
软件行业“快时尚化”背后的经济学 ｜ AGIX PM Notes
海外独角兽·2025-08-18 12:06