奥尔特曼：AI投资开始有泡沫了，但仍是科技长期大势

Core Viewpoint - The AI market is beginning to show signs of a bubble, as acknowledged by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who believes that the current excitement among investors is excessive despite the underlying importance of AI technology [2][3]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - Altman suggests that bubbles often originate from real trends, which are then exaggerated by investors leading to inflated expectations and valuations [3]. - Concerns are rising that the AI hype may follow the path of the internet bubble, where the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value from March 2000 to October 2002 due to many companies failing to generate revenue or profit [3]. - Experts like Ray Dalio and Torsten Slok have echoed similar warnings about the rapid pace of AI investments, with Slok stating that the current AI bubble may be larger than the internet bubble of the 1990s [3]. Group 2: Company Performance and Projections - OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is expected to exceed $20 billion this year, although the company has yet to achieve profitability [5]. - Following the release of the new GPT-5 model, OpenAI has restored access to the previous GPT-4 model for paying customers due to some issues with the new version [6]. - Despite the challenges, investor confidence in OpenAI remains strong, with reports indicating that employees are seeking to sell approximately $6 billion worth of shares at a valuation of $500 billion [8]. Group 3: Future Directions and Investments - Altman has indicated that OpenAI plans to invest trillions of dollars in data center expansion in the near future and has expressed interest in acquiring assets if regulatory changes occur [9]. - The relevance of the term "Artificial General Intelligence" (AGI) is diminishing, according to Altman, as the industry evolves [7]. - Altman humorously suggested that AI might take over as CEO in a few years, reflecting the rapid advancements in the field [10].