统计局名单中唯一实现二手房价淡季上涨，山西太原为什么？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Taiyuan is experiencing a short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, contrasting with the overall downward trend observed in other cities across the country [5][9][10]. Summary by Sections National Real Estate Market Trends - In July, second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China saw a general decline, with first-tier cities down by 1.0% and second and third-tier cities down by 0.5% [3][9]. - Only six cities reported an increase in new housing prices, with the highest being Shanghai and Urumqi, both at 0.3% [9][10]. Taiyuan's Economic Context - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [5][6]. - The city has postponed its goal of reaching a GDP of 1 trillion yuan from 2025 to 2027 due to various macroeconomic challenges [5][6]. Second-hand Housing Market in Taiyuan - In July, Taiyuan was the only city to see a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.2%, while the year-on-year figure fell by 4.6% [6][8]. - The new housing market in Taiyuan experienced a slight decline of 0.2% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [6][8]. Factors Influencing Taiyuan's Housing Prices - The relative stability of Taiyuan's real estate market is attributed to its historical growth patterns, with less aggressive expansion compared to other provincial capitals [7][9]. - Certain districts in Taiyuan, such as Yingze and Wanbailin, have shown slight increases in second-hand housing prices, indicating localized market strength [7][8]. Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall trend suggests that while there is a short-term rebound in Taiyuan, the long-term outlook for second-hand housing prices remains uncertain due to a predominance of price declines across the broader market [8][10]. - The central government is expected to implement more supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on improving housing supply and addressing the challenges faced by the second-hand housing market [10][11].