特朗普贸易政策或致美国制造业损失4900亿美元投资

Core Viewpoint - The report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee warns that President Trump's trade policies could lead to a reduction of over 13% in U.S. manufacturing investment annually, totaling more than $490 billion in losses by 2029 [3][6]. Group 1: Impact on Employment and Investment - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest point in nearly a decade [3][6]. - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's administration began, as companies are hesitant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [3][6]. - A survey indicated that manufacturing firms expected capital expenditures to grow by 5.2% in December 2024, but by May 2025, they anticipated a decline of 1.3% [6][9]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have significantly increased economic uncertainty [6][7]. - Manufacturers view trade uncertainty as a primary concern, followed by rising input costs, which has led to a decrease in optimism regarding future investments [6][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is compared to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, suggesting that U.S. manufacturers face broader and potentially more severe consequences [9]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Delayed investments not only hinder innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and reduced competitiveness against other countries [7][9]. - Even if all trade policies were resolved immediately, the recent turmoil could still negatively impact long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [9]. - The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could result in an average annual investment reduction of 1%, leading to a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [9].