九方金融研究所：反内卷的进程、难题与破局

Core Viewpoint - The anti-involution policy is reshaping market dynamics and industrial ecology in China, transitioning from industry initiatives to systematic governance, with a focus on preventing vicious competition and promoting orderly market practices [1][3]. Anti-Involution Process - The anti-involution policy has been continuously reinforced since its initial proposal in July 2024, evolving into a comprehensive framework aimed at addressing low-price disorderly competition and facilitating the exit of outdated production capacity [3][4]. Challenges Faced by Anti-Involution Policy - The policy faces significant challenges, including insufficient enforcement, reliance on industry self-discipline, and a lack of effective demand stimulation, leading to a weak market response and persistent low-price competition [6][9]. - The demand side is currently weak, with structural contradictions in demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and steel industries, where external factors and market conditions hinder recovery [7][9]. Industry Differences and Policy Adaptability - Different industries exhibit distinct causes and pain points of "involution," making it difficult to implement a unified policy effectively. For instance, the photovoltaic sector is heavily reliant on external demand, while the steel industry must balance environmental upgrades with employment concerns [8][9]. Supply-Side Reform Insights - Historical supply-side reforms (2015-2016) successfully addressed overcapacity through strong administrative measures and demand-side stimulation, leading to significant improvements in industry profitability and concentration [11][12]. Proposed Solutions for Breaking the Involution Cycle - Two innovative paths are suggested: 1. Demand-side reforms to enhance service sector growth and optimize export structures, thereby rebalancing demand and guiding supply transformation [16][17]. 2. Combining policy enforcement with industry self-discipline to shift competition from price wars to technology and service battles, fostering a sustainable path for industrial upgrading and employment stability [22][24].