债市“跌麻了”！基金经理直言“压力大”

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with fund managers expressing concerns about pressure and actively shortening duration and adjusting structures to cope with future steepening of the yield curve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market faced a severe downturn on August 18, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - Despite a brief recovery earlier in August, the bond market has been under pressure again due to increased market risk appetite, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing the high point from July [1][4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are facing redemption pressures, particularly in bond funds, but they believe that the bond market does not have a foundation for a long-term decline, as the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8% reflects current expectations [2][9]. - The performance of pure bond funds has been poor, with average returns for medium to long-term pure bond funds at -0.19% and short bond funds at -0.03% [7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The bond market's adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to a mild inflation scenario impacting long-term bonds negatively [4][5]. - There is a notable lack of configuration funds from small and medium-sized banks, with a significant decrease in bond investment balances reported [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies to focus on shorter durations and are maintaining a neutral to high duration stance while reducing exposure to long-term rates [9]. - The overall sentiment is that while the bond market may not see significant positive catalysts in the short term, it remains within a range of support and resistance, with a cautious approach recommended [9]. Group 5: Recommendations for Investors - Fund managers suggest that credit bond funds may yield over 2% in the coming year, and investors should consider gradually increasing their exposure to these funds [11]. - For individual investors, maintaining a long-term perspective and potentially increasing allocations during market adjustments is advised, while also considering a balanced portfolio with some equity exposure [11].