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巴菲特开始布局,美股这些板块反弹
第一财经·2025-08-20 00:19

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in U.S. housing stocks and small-cap stocks, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical upward trend [3]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [3]. - The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also saw a 3.1% increase, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices rose by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7% respectively during the same period [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, noted that housing stocks had previously suffered, dropping nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [4]. - Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that traditional sectors benefiting from rate cuts have been rising as the market anticipates a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [4][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to adopt a dovish stance in his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, aligning with market expectations for rate cuts [5]. - There is speculation about the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, although a more gradual approach of 25 basis points is considered more likely by most market participants [5]. Group 4: Investment Moves - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent strong rebound, housing stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded about 20% since April [8]. - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying activity [8][9]. - The current market conditions have led builders to offer temporary rate buy-downs to stimulate sales, with starting rates sometimes as low as 3.99% [9].