刚刚！降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's central bank has initiated a monetary easing cycle by lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, responding to signs of economic stagnation and aiming to support fragile economic recovery [3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - On August 20, New Zealand's central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - This reduction marks a total decrease of 250 basis points since August 2024, aimed at bolstering the weak economic recovery [7]. - The decision to lower the rate was made with a majority vote of 4 to 2, considering the economic conditions [8]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - New Zealand's economy showed signs of stagnation in the second quarter, with household and business spending constrained by global economic uncertainties and rising prices of essential goods [9]. - The central bank anticipates that overall inflation will return to around 2% by mid-2026, as domestic inflationary pressures ease [9]. - Economic forecasts suggest a potential GDP decline of 0.3% in Q2 2025, followed by a modest growth of 0.3% in Q3 2025 [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the official cash rate (OCR) may remain at supportive levels for an extended period to stimulate the economy, with a possibility of further reductions below 3% by the end of the year [10][11]. - The central bank's monetary policy stance may shift to a more accommodative position if inflation continues to stay within the target range [10]. - New Zealand's ASB Bank forecasts a further reduction of the cash rate to 2.5% in November [11].