大跌！日本突发，日股跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The impact of US tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming evident, with significant declines in trade figures and potential negative effects on the Japanese economy [1][7]. Trade Data Summary - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6%, exceeding expectations and marking the largest drop in over four years. Exports to the US decreased by 10.1%, with substantial declines in automotive and parts exports [2][5]. - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 795.5 million USD) in July, contrasting with a forecasted surplus of 196.2 billion yen. This was driven by a 11.4% drop in automotive exports and a 21% decrease in steel exports [5][6]. - Imports also saw a decline, with a 7.5% drop in July, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decrease. Key import reductions included crude oil (down 18%) and coal (down 28.5%) [5]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the release of trade data, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5%. Analysts predict a potential retreat of the index from recent highs, largely dependent on the fragile US-Japan trade agreement [6][2]. Economic Impact - The automotive sector, a crucial part of Japan's economy, is facing significant challenges due to reduced exports, which could negatively impact overall economic growth. The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [9]. - Economic forecasts suggest that Japan's economy may enter negative growth in Q3, with a projected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by the ongoing effects of US tariff policies [9]. Tariff Policy Effects - The US tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the US, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports fell by 26.7% in June. The tariff rate on Japanese cars was raised from 2.5% to 27.5% [8][9]. - The Kyushu region experienced the most significant declines in automotive exports, with a staggering 67.8% drop in volume and a 76.3% decrease in value [8].