LPR连续3个月“按兵不动”，还有多大调降空间？

Core Viewpoint - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stability in the current economic environment [3][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The unchanged LPR rates align with market expectations, as the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has also remained stable, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for LPR [4]. - The recent increase in market interest rates and the historical low net interest margins for commercial banks have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The stability of LPR is attributed to a moderately strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [5]. - Both corporate and personal loan rates are currently at low levels, suggesting that lowering the LPR is not an urgent priority [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the marginal effects of interest rate cuts are diminishing, and alternative methods to reduce overall financing costs, such as lowering non-interest costs, may be more effective [5]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, potentially leading to a decrease in LPR [5]. - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market, with potential targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [5].