天天基金网·2025-08-20 07:28Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is currently experiencing a rebound, with expectations for further investment opportunities in the second half of the year as the industry is rapidly bottoming out [1][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound, with a notable increase on August 20, 2023. However, since 2021, the industry's valuation has been in a continuous decline, with the current PE-TTM at 18.61 as of August 19, 2023, indicating it is at a relative bottom compared to the 2012-2015 adjustment period [1][7]. Investment Logic - Institutions suggest that the baijiu sector is now worth considering for gradual investment. The current low expectations and valuations present a potential opportunity for investors. Additionally, the proportion of funds holding baijiu stocks has been decreasing, indicating a favorable chip structure [4][7]. Dividend and Growth Potential - Leading baijiu companies maintain high dividend payout ratios, providing attractive yield rates. This suggests that the sector may offer good investment opportunities in the near future [5][7]. Structural Adjustments - Major companies in the baijiu industry are adjusting their channel structures and enhancing market development capabilities. If consumer demand begins to recover, these companies are likely to benefit significantly from their proactive adjustments [5][8]. Long-term Outlook - The baijiu sector is transitioning from a cyclical growth model, which relied heavily on economic fluctuations, to a more stable cash flow and dividend-focused investment model by 2025. This shift indicates a long-term investment potential worth monitoring [5][8]. Future Projections - The industry is expected to reach its performance bottom by the first half of 2026, with stock prices likely to show a trend reversal ahead of demand recovery, based on high-frequency signals and pricing trends [5][8].